預測先天性耳廓畸形嬰兒耳廓模塑成功的列線圖：回顧性隊列研究

// Nomogram for predicting successful ear molding in infants with congenital auricular deformities: A retrospective cohort study

回溯328名嬰兒建模，耳模非手術矯正成功率88.4%｜年齡↑、基線嚴重度↑與混合/其他畸形（vs耳輪折疊）降低成功機率，年齡呈線性影響｜內部驗證佳：校正AUC0.795、斜率0.965；可作術前諮詢與追蹤參考，仍須外部驗證。

// We developed and internally validated an ear-level multivariable logistic prediction model (generalized estimating equations with multilevel multiple imputation and cluster bootstrap validation) for successful nonsurgical ear molding using a retrospective cohort of 328 infants (482 ears). Successful correction occurred in 88.4% of ears; older age at treatment start, greater baseline severity, and mixed/other anomalies (vs helical-folding deformities) were independently associated with lower odds of success, and age showed a linear effect with no clear threshold. The model had good performance (optimism-corrected AUC 0.795, calibration slope 0.965, Brier score 0.088) and may help pretreatment counseling and follow-up planning but requires external validation before routine clinical use.

Published 2026年8月31日